South team agency spend up 15% but contacts/WTE flat
Action: Roster review before further agency hire — discuss with South CMHT lead.
Shares fact_mh_referral_episode with the MHSDS-like Mar 2026 submission — same episode grain, different roll-up and inclusion rules for local operational use.
What this supports:
- Weekly capacity meetings and workforce planning
- Separating backlog growth from referral definition change
- Agency spend review alongside contacts delivered (KPI-08)
Definition risk: Referrals-in-week uses agreed KPI-01 — do not mix with dashboard count.
Synthetic weekly demand/capacity — supports service decisions alongside definition work.
264Backlog (W21)
0.82Workforce availability
£15,960Agency spend (week)
12dMedian wait
Weekly trend (W06–W21)
| Week | Demand | Capacity | Backlog | WFA | Agency | Wait | OPT-C / dash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W06 | 172 | 178 | 108 | 0.94 | £13,200 | 10d | 33/36 |
| W07 | 175 | 179 | 112 | 0.93 | £13,350 | 10d | 34/37 |
| W08 | 178 | 179 | 116 | 0.93 | £13,500 | 11d | 34/37 |
| W09 | 182 | 180 | 121 | 0.92 | £13,680 | 11d | 35/38 |
| W10 | 185 | 180 | 125 | 0.92 | £13,875 | 11d | 36/39 |
| W11 | 188 | 182 | 131 | 0.91 | £13,980 | 11d | 37/40 |
| W12 | 192 | 184 | 138 | 0.90 | £14,100 | 12d | 38/41 |
| W13 | 196 | 186 | 146 | 0.89 | £14,220 | 12d | 39/42 |
| W14 | 200 | 188 | 158 | 0.88 | £14,370 | 12d | 40/43 |
| W15 | 202 | 190 | 168 | 0.87 | £14,580 | 12d | 41/44 |
| W16 | 204 | 192 | 178 | 0.86 | £14,760 | 12d | 42/45 |
| W17 | 206 | 194 | 192 | 0.86 | £14,940 | 12d | 43/46 |
| W18 | 208 | 195 | 212 | 0.85 | £15,180 | 12d | 44/47 |
| W19 | 212 | 197 | 228 | 0.84 | £15,420 | 12d | 45/48 |
| W20 | 215 | 198 | 246 | 0.83 | £15,690 | 12d | 46/49 |
| W21 | 218 | 200 | 264 | 0.82 | £15,960 | 12d | 48/52 |
Genuine demand pressure alongside definition change — both need separating in narrative.
Insights from analysis
Analysis turned data into two service conversations, one pilot, and ruled out one forecast we would not trust yet during definition change.
DNA rate rising with median wait — recovery slots pilot
Action: Pilot DNA recovery slots in South team; review after 4 weeks.
Naive 4-week backlog forecast unreliable during definition change
Action: Dismiss forecast for Board; revisit post OPT-C sign-off (M5).
Full insights on deliverable page · demand_capacity_insights.csv
View in source-to-report map · demand_capacity_weekly.csv · local_demand_access_pack_metrics.csv · fact_mh_referral_episode.csv