Handover deliverable · 4 of 6 · Target M4

Demand, capacity and productivity insight

Weekly operational analysis with productivity by team and insights that drive service action.

DRH migration context: Legendary Care (case-based) → PathwayOne (action-based). Parallel run Dec 2025–Jan 2026; Mar 2026 definition crunch.

Headline indicators — W21

264Backlog

0.82Workforce availability

£15,960Agency spend (week)

12dMedian wait

OPT-C referrals 48 vs dashboard 52 in week — separate genuine demand pressure from definition artefact.

Weekly trend (W06–W21)

Week	Demand	Capacity	Backlog	WFA	Agency	Wait	OPT-C / dash refs
W06	172	178	108	0.94	£13,200	10d	33/36
W07	175	179	112	0.93	£13,350	10d	34/37
W08	178	179	116	0.93	£13,500	11d	34/37
W09	182	180	121	0.92	£13,680	11d	35/38
W10	185	180	125	0.92	£13,875	11d	36/39
W11	188	182	131	0.91	£13,980	11d	37/40
W12	192	184	138	0.90	£14,100	12d	38/41
W13	196	186	146	0.89	£14,220	12d	39/42
W14	200	188	158	0.88	£14,370	12d	40/43
W15	202	190	168	0.87	£14,580	12d	41/44
W16	204	192	178	0.86	£14,760	12d	42/45
W17	206	194	192	0.86	£14,940	12d	43/46
W18	208	195	212	0.85	£15,180	12d	44/47
W19	212	197	228	0.84	£15,420	12d	45/48
W20	215	198	246	0.83	£15,690	12d	46/49
W21	218	200	264	0.82	£15,960	12d	48/52

Productivity by team (W14 vs W21)

Team	Contacts/WTE W14	Contacts/WTE W21	WTE W21	Agency W21	£/contact W21
AA-CRISIS-01	51	49	11.0	£2,250	25.00
AA-MH-EAST-01	38	37	12.5	£3,200	47.06
AA-MH-NORTH-01	42	39	14.2	£3,500	42.68
AA-MH-SOUTH-01	41	38	12.9	£4,400	61.97
AA-PCL-01	44	42	9.2	£1,900	35.19

Insights from analysis

Analysis turned data into two service conversations, one pilot, and ruled out one forecast we would not trust yet during definition change.

Promoted · 2026-W21 · Service manager

South team agency spend up 15% but contacts/WTE flat

Evidence: AA-MH-SOUTH-01 WFA 0.82 vs North 0.92; agency £4,400 vs £3,500; contacts/WTE 38 vs 39

Action: Roster review before further agency hire — discuss with South CMHT lead

Under test · 2026-W21 · Clinical lead

DNA rate rising with median wait — recovery slots pilot

Evidence: DNA 8%→11% W10–W21; median wait stable at 12d but long-wait count +32

Action: Pilot DNA recovery slots in South team; review after 4 weeks

Dismissed · 2026-W18 · Performance lead

Naive 4-week backlog forecast unreliable during definition change

Evidence: Forecast overshot by 18% when dashboard referrals used instead of OPT-C

Action: Dismiss forecast for Board; revisit post OPT-C sign-off (M5)

Promoted · 2026-W21 · BI lead

INVALID_TEAM rows inflate East waiting stock

Evidence: VAL-02 fail; 1 INVALID_TEAM row maps to AA-MH-EAST-01 waiting count

Action: Fix crosswalk before capacity meeting — do not allocate agency on bad stock

Parked · 2026-W21 · Performance lead

Caseload mix shift needs agreed KPI-07 before action

Evidence: Open vs waiting ratio changed post-migration; KPI-07 still Draft

Action: Park workforce modelling until caseload definition signed off

Sign-off: CMHT service manager — prototype agreed for local use; INS-01 and INS-04 actions in capacity meeting.

Formatted demand pack · demand_capacity_weekly.csv · productivity_by_team.csv · demand_capacity_insights.csv

In plain English

This is a weekly operational view for service managers: how much demand is coming in, how much capacity we have, how long people are waiting, and how productive teams are. The important part is the analysis — what the data suggests we should do differently, what we are piloting, and what we ruled out because it would mislead during the migration.