MHS23 — Open referrals
Latest: 24,790. Six-month reading: rising. Open referrals are not new demand — higher counts are not automatically worse.
Human check: MHSDS/data owner to confirm open-referral definition.
Public-data demonstration report: This is not an official Dorset HealthCare report. It uses public aggregate data only and requires human review and local owner confirmation before operational use.
What the agent was asked to do
Business question: From six months of public MHSDS Provider/RDY data, summarise access and activity measures, describe descriptive trends, and list what a mental health data owner must confirm.
Dataset: MHSDS Monthly Statistics — stacked Provider/RDY trend file
This is a first-draft analytical brief for human review — not an approved performance report.
Scope: Provider / RDY rows only — not Dorset population or ICB-resident views.
Data used
- Primary:
trend_mhsds_access_rdy.csv— MHS23, MHS01, MHS29, MHS69 (Provider/RDY) - Context:
demo_mhsds_activity.csv— latest-month slice for suppression audit - Fallback reference:
rdy_mhsds_monthly_mhsds_monthly_performance-april-2026_time_series_MHSDS Time_Series_data_Apr_2016_MarPrf_2023.csv
What this report can and cannot tell us
This report can:
- Summarise six months of key MHSDS access and activity measures for RDY as provider.
- Show latest vs previous month and six-month descriptive change.
- Flag suppression, provisional data and breakdown scope limits.
This report cannot:
- Support operational access conclusions without local MHSDS validation.
- Combine provider and ICB-resident breakdowns into one headline.
- Explain why trends changed or infer access improvement from contact counts alone.
For that reason, this should be treated as a first-draft prompt for review, not a final performance judgement.
Headline reading
- MHSDS access and activity profile for Dorset HealthCare (RDY as provider), Nov 2025 to Apr 2026.
- Caseload-style measures (MHS23, MHS01) rose over six months while contact volume (MHS29) was broadly stable. This may indicate increased open-referral pressure, reduced contact intensity, coding effects, discharge effects, or case mix — local validation needed.
- MHS69 shows volatile movement including a very large April increase — treat as a major validation flag, not operational improvement. Financial-year counting logic may apply.
- MHS01 was renamed nationally from April 2026 to 'people with an open referral' (previously 'people in contact') — not necessarily proof of contact or access.
- Provider and ICB-resident breakdowns must not be summed into one trust-wide headline.
Priority review flags
- MHS69 shows very large volatile movement (latest: 1,505). Do not read as sudden operational improvement. Financial-year counting logic, contact recording, or submission timing may explain the April movement.
Caveats (read before interpreting)
- MHSDS monthly data are provisional and may revise on final refresh.
- Suppressed values (
*) are not treated as zero and are excluded from averages and charts. - Figures are Provider/RDY rows only — not ICB-resident population views.
- Stock measures (open referrals, in-contact counts) and activity measures (contacts) must not be read as access performance without local validation.
- Latest-month demo extract contains 77 suppressed cells across all measures — see audit trail.
Six-month headline measures (Provider/RDY)
Period: Nov 2025 – Apr 2026 (6 months, provisional MHSDS, Provider/RDY)
Descriptive statistics from trend_mhsds_access_rdy.csv; suppressed values excluded from averages and charts.
| Measure | Latest | Previous month | MoM change | Six-month change | Six-month avg | Six-month high | Six-month low | Trend reading | Desired direction / target | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHS23 — Open referrals at end of reporting period | 24,790 (Apr 2026) | 24,715 (Mar 2026) | +75 (+0.3%) | +875 (+3.7%) | 24,298.3 | 24,790 | 23,765 | Rising | No simple target | Rising open-referral stock; not automatically good or bad. |
| MHS01 — People with an open referral with services at end of reporting period | 21,860 (Apr 2026) | 21,755 (Mar 2026) | +105 (+0.5%) | +970 (+4.6%) | 21,319.2 | 21,860 | 20,820 | Rising | No simple target | May reflect caseload, activity, coding or discharge — not proof of access. |
| MHS29 — Contacts in reporting period | 31,305 (Apr 2026) | 31,240 (Mar 2026) | +65 (+0.2%) | +100 (+0.3%) | 30,490.8 | 31,370 | 28,560 | Broadly stable | No simple target | Activity broadly flat or moving — not proof of access improvement. |
| MHS69 — CYP with at least two contacts (before 18th birthday) | 1,505 (Apr 2026) | 310 (Mar 2026) | +1,195 (+385.5%) | +1,170 (+349.3%) | 515.8 | 1,505 | 260 | Volatile | Access-style metric; validate definition | MAJOR VALIDATION FLAG: very large month-on-month movement. MHS69 has financial-year counting logic — do not read as sudden operational improvement. Do not infer improvement without CYP data owner check — FY reset logic may apply. |
Six-month trend charts
MHS23 — Open referrals at end of reporting period (Nov 2025 – Apr 2026)
MHS01 — People with an open referral with services at end of reporting period (Nov 2025 – Apr 2026)
MHS29 — Contacts in reporting period (Nov 2025 – Apr 2026)
MHS69 — CYP with at least two contacts (before 18th birthday) (Nov 2025 – Apr 2026)
Why this is useful
- The agent assembled six months of Provider/RDY MHSDS measures with descriptive trends and suppression handling.
- It flagged where stock measures and activity measures tell different stories, and where validation is needed before operational use.
Human validation checklist
- Is this the same definition used locally? — Public datasets may use national definitions. Local dashboards may use different filters, denominators or reporting dates.
- Is this still the latest position? — Public data may be delayed. Local operational data may have moved on since the reporting period shown.
- Is the figure affected by data quality, suppression, coding or service model? — A public figure can be affected by small numbers, exclusions, coding rules or how services are configured.
- Who owns the local narrative? — The accountable service, finance, workforce, quality or BI owner should confirm the explanation before use.
- Is this suitable for board/service reporting, or only a prompt for further review? — These briefs are first drafts — confirm whether the figure is ready for formal reporting or needs more local work.
- Does the local MHSDS definition match these public Provider/RDY measures? — Confirm MHS23 open referrals and MHS01 in-contact definitions with the data owner.
- Are suppressed or missing months material for your reporting? — Check value_status in trend file — MHS23: 0 suppressed; MHS01: 0 suppressed; MHS29: 0 suppressed; MHS69: 0 suppressed.
- Should Provider or ICB-resident breakdowns be used for this question? — This brief uses Provider/RDY only — do not sum with resident breakdowns.
Bottom line
Over six months, open-referral stock measures rose while contact volume was broadly stable. That pattern may signal caseload pressure but cannot prove whether access is improving or worsening. MHS69 needs particular validation before any access finding. A mental health data owner should confirm definitions and whether these Provider/RDY figures match local reporting.
Audit trail and source checks
Six-month figures trace to stacked MHSDS main-data monthly files — no synthetic values.
Six-month statistics computed from trend_mhsds_access_rdy.csv (value_status=numeric rows only for averages/charts).
Demo CSV(s):
- trend_mhsds_access_rdy.csv
- demo_mhsds_activity.csv
- rdy_mhsds_monthly_mhsds_monthly_performance-april-2026_time_series_MHSDS Time_Series_data_Apr_2016_MarPrf_2023.csv
Filter / inspection notes:
Method documentation: PUBLIC_REPORTS_METHOD.md · DATA_SOURCE_REGISTER.csv · Governance and benefits
Key findings by review area (detail)
Key findings by review area
Stock measures (caseload-style)
MHS01 — People in contact
Latest: 21,860. Six-month reading: rising. Movement may reflect activity, discharge or coding.
Human check: Confirm local in-contact definition matches MHSDS.
Activity measures
MHS29 — Contacts in reporting period
Latest: 31,305. Six-month reading: broadly stable. Contact volume does not automatically mean better access.
Human check: Service/BI owner to confirm contact counting rules.
MHS69 — CYP with two contacts
Latest: 1,505. Confirm cohort and resident vs provider scope.
Human check: CYP mental health lead.
Draft interpretation (detail)
Draft interpretation
- Six-month MHSDS brief (Nov 2025 – Apr 2026 (6 months, provisional MHSDS, Provider/RDY)) for RDY Provider rows.
- Rising over the window: MHS23, MHS01.
- Broadly stable: MHS29.
- Descriptive trends only — not causal. Local MHSDS owner validation required before operational use.
Prompt excerpt
Load trend_mhsds_access_rdy.csv for MHS23, MHS01, MHS29, MHS69. Compute six-month descriptive stats and trend readings. No causal claims. Do not sum provider and resident breakdowns.
Technical audit — latest-month demo extract and source files
Latest demo month: 01/04/2026 to 30/04/2026. Six-month headline table uses stacked trend file only.
| MEASURE_ID | MEASURE_NAME | MEASURE_VALUE | BREAKDOWN |
|---|---|---|---|
| MHS23 | Open referrals at the end of the reporting period | 24790 | Provider |
| MHS01 | People with an open referral with services at the end of the reporting period | 21860 | Provider |
| MH01 | People with an open referral with mental health services at the end of the reporting period | 19755 | Provider |
| AMH23 | Open referrals (adult mental health services) at end of the reporting period | 17085 | Provider |
| AMH01 | People with an open referral with adult mental health services at the end of the reporting period | 14830 | Provider |
| MH01b | People with an open referral with mental health services aged 19 to 64 at the end of the reporting period | 10490 | Provider |
| CYP23 | Open referrals (children's and young people's mental health services) at end of the reporting period | 5375 | Provider |
| MH01a | People with an open referral with mental health services aged 0 to 18 at the end of the reporting period | 5175 | Provider |
| CYP01 | People with an open referral with children and young people's mental health services at the end of the reporting period | 4965 | Provider |
| MH01c | People with an open referral with mental health services aged 65 and over at the end of the reporting period | 4090 | Provider |
Time-series fallback file: rdy_mhsds_monthly_mhsds_monthly_performance-april-2026_time_series_MHSDS Time_Series_data_Apr_2016_MarPrf_2023.csv
Pipeline: site/public-data/05_download_historic_public_data.R; render: site/R/03_render_public_reports.R
Human review required: Confirm definitions, publication status and local owner sign-off before any operational use.