Synthetic demonstration only. Not official reporting. Figures tagged
_synthetic=TRUE. Not RDY-calibrated. Human sign-off required.
Headline reading
- Jan–Feb 2026: IUCS contacts elevated vs Sep–Nov baseline with corroborating bank shifts and agency spend — possible operational pressure (multi-source).
- March 2026: Case opens rose slightly while IUCS contacts fell; most new cases lack CareCall
SourceContactId. Extract change log records CareCase inclusion rule change — treat as extract-driven until data owner confirms. - December 2025: 46 IUCS contacts show
ContactDatebeforeCreatedDateTimedate — check export schedule change before month attribution.
Provider-month measures (DRH)
Source: marts/demo_provider_month_measures.csv, volume_trends.csv
| Month | IUCS contacts (activity) | Cases opened (all) | Operational cases | Agency spend (£) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 1,592 | 461 | 274 | 51,179 |
| 2026-02 | 1,477 | 525 | 402 | 61,356 |
| 2026-03 | 1,272 | 542 | 197 | 44,758 |
Operational cases exclude ExtractInclusionFlag=1 and missing source contact (demo filter).
Caveats
- Stock vs activity: do not read case opens as IUCS demand proxy without linkage checks.
- March movement: review
localops_extract_change_log.xlsxbefore operational narrative. - Linkage: 1,016 ambiguous contacts require bridge resolution — see linkage_resolution_strategy.md.
DEMO-NHS-*identifiers are not valid NHS numbers.
Bottom line
Early 2026 shows mixed signals: Jan–Feb uplift is multi-source; March case increase is not corroborated by IUCS contacts and aligns with extract rule change. Do not publish a single "demand surge" narrative without data owner validation.
Human review required before any use outside this demonstration site.